Climate hazard scores (Projection)
The climate risk scores show how severe physical damage from natural hazards might be in future climate scenarios (RCPs). These scores help users understand and measure the impact of climate change on their assets in the coming years. What sets them apart from NATHAN scores is that Climate hazard scores adapt to future climate scenarios, considering both current and projected hazard zones, like tropical cyclones and river floods, which are included in both scores.
Klimagefahren-Scores verwenden Klimamodelle, um vorherzusagen, wie sich diese Risiken in zukünftigen RCP-Szenarien verhalten werden. NATHAN-Gefährdungsscores hingegen stützen sich auf Naturgefahrenmodelle, um das gegenwärtige Risiko zu bewerten.
Für akute Klimagefahren wie tropische Wirbelstürme und Flussüberschwemmungen unterscheidet sich die Berechnung des künftigen Klimarisikos unter RCPs vom gegenwärtigen Risiko in NATHAN. Dazu werden verschiedene Klimamodelle verwendet, um das zukünftige Verhalten vorherzusagen.
Table: Climate hazard types and scales
Climate Hazard Type | Description | Intensity Scale | RCP |
Acute
| |||
Tropical Cyclone | See Tropical Cyclone in Table 3.2.
| HiFLOR model assesses how climate change will alter the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones according to RCP scenarios. | 4.5, 8.5 |
River Flood | See River Flood in Table 3.2. | Projection for RCP scenarios, using global climate model (CMIP5) and global land surface models estimating changes in peak water runoff. | 4.5, 8.5 |
Chronic
| |||
Sea Level Rise | The extent and depth of coastal inundation due to sea level rise at a a given location in a given year | Hazard zones derived from IPCC sea-level rise data and high-resolution elevation data for respective projection year and RCP scenario. Model is based on storm surge events with 100 years return period. | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
Fire Weather Stress | Wildfire risk based on Fire Weather Stress Index (FWI), describing climatological conditions inducing wildfires. | The FWI combines the probability of ignition, the speed and likelihood of spread and the availability of fuel. FWI is modeled on daily data on temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind. | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
Drought | Duration, intensity and severity of drought conditions with respect to normal conditions in a period. | Change in the water balance based on change in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Based on global climate model (CMIP5) and regional climate modeling (CORDEX). | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
Heat Stress | The occurrence of periods of extreme heat relative to local climatic conditions, based on the Heat Stress Index (HSI). | The HSI describes meteorological threat by heat stress, derived from information about e.g. heat waves, annual maximum temperature, tropical nights. Based on global climate model (CMIP5) and regional climate modeling (CORDEX). | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
Precipitation Stress | The occurrence of heavy precipitation relative to local climatic conditions, based on Precipitation Stress Index (PSI). | The PSI describes current meteorological threat by high precipitation, derived from information about e.g. single-day high precipitation events, prolonged precipitation events. Based on global climate model (CMIP5) and regional climate modeling (CORDEX). | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
For more information Location Risk Intelligence and Natural Risks
4.3 Table: Climate hazard scales and indices
Hazard Zones |
| Traffic Lights |
|
Value | Zone | Value | Risk Level |
Sea Level Rise
| |||
-1 | No hazard | -1 | No or Very Low |
1 | Low | 1 | Low |
2 | Medium | 2 | Medium |
3 | High | 3 | High |
4 | Extreme | 4 | Very High |
Fire Weather Stress
| |||
0 — 2 | Very Low | 0 — 1.5 | No or Very Low |
2— 4 | Low | 1.5 — 3.5 | Low |
4 — 6 | Medium | 3.5 — 6.5 | Medium |
6 — 8 | High | 6.5 — 8.5 | High |
8 — 10 | Very High | 8.5 — 10 | Very High |
Drought Stress
| |||
0 — 2 | Very Low | 0 — 1.5 | No or Very Low |
2— 4 | Low | 1.5 — 3.5 | Low |
4 — 6 | Medium | 3.5 — 6.5 | Medium |
6 — 8 | High | 6.5 — 8.5 | High |
8 — 10 | Very High | 8.5 — 10 | Very High |
Heat Stress
| |||
0 — 2 | Very Low | 0 — 1.5 | No or Very Low |
2— 4 | Low | 1.5 — 3.5 | Low |
4 — 6 | Medium | 3.5 — 6.5 | Medium |
6 — 8 | High | 6.5 — 8.5 | High |
8 — 10 | Very High | 8.5 — 10 | Very High |
Precipitation Stress
| |||
0 — 2 | Very Low | 0 — 1.5 | No or Very Low |
2— 4 | Low | 1.5 — 3.5 | Low |
4 — 6 | Medium | 3.5 — 6.5 | Medium |
6 — 8 | High | 6.5 — 8.5 | High |
8 — 10 | Very High | 8.5 — 10 | Very High |
For more information on the above a resource guide can be downloaded here